27 exam-style questions on Sales forecasting — topic 4.3 of Marketing in the IB Business Management syllabus — with answers and explanations. Samples below; the full set is free with an account.
In time-series analysis, which component captures the underlying long-term direction of sales over several years, ignoring short-term fluctuations?
Answer: The trend
The trend is the smoothed long-term movement of the data; seasonal and cyclical components describe shorter-term repeating patterns around that trend.
When forecasting quarterly sales that peak every summer and dip every winter, which time-series component is being captured?
Answer: Seasonal variation
Seasonal variation is a regular pattern that repeats within a year (e.g. quarterly peaks and troughs); cyclical variation spans longer, multi-year business cycles.
A four-quarter moving average is used rather than a three-quarter one for quarterly data primarily because it:
Answer: Averages out the full seasonal cycle
Using a period equal to the seasonal cycle (four quarters) smooths out seasonal variation so the moving average reflects the trend; an even period then requires centring.
For a given quarter the actual sales are 220 units and the trend (moving average) value is 200 units, using an additive model. Calculate the seasonal variation for that quarter.
Answer: +20 units
In the additive model, seasonal variation = actual − trend = 220 − 200 = +20 units.
A trend line for sales is Y = 500 + 30x, where x is the quarter number. The seasonal variation for Q3 is −40 units. Determine the forecast sales for quarter x = 12 (a Q3).
Answer: 820 units
Trend at x=12 is 500 + 30×12 = 860; adding the seasonal variation of −40 gives 860 − 40 = 820 units.
Which of the following is a valid criticism of extrapolating a trend line far into the future to forecast sales?
Answer: It assumes the past trend will simply continue
Extrapolation assumes the historical trend persists; sudden market, technological or economic changes can make distant forecasts unreliable.
That was 6 of 27 Sales forecasting questions.
Practise all 27 freeExplainAO2 · 4–6 marks
Give reasons or causes: say what happens AND why, linking each step with 'because' or 'so that'.
StateAO1 · 2 marks
One word or one short sentence. No explanation, no working: the mark is for the fact itself.
OutlineAO1 · 2 marks
A brief account or summary: the main points in two or three sentences, no evaluation.
27 Sales forecasting questions — free with an account. Spaced repetition, streaks and full exam simulations included.
Practise them freeThis platform is independently developed and is not endorsed by, affiliated with, or sponsored by the International Baccalaureate Organization. “International Baccalaureate” and “IB” are registered trademarks of the IBO.